I wrote this column for the school newspaper in mid-September, just as the NFL season got underway.

Let’s revisit my major predictions:

1. Aaron Rodgers will lead the Packers to the NFC North title. Um, not so much. Surprisingly, I did not predict that the streaky, and ultimately shaky, tandem of Tarvaris Jackson and (the aging) Gus Frerotte would lead the Vikings to the NFC North title. Rodgers posted great statistics, but ultimately faltered down the stretch of several games. With a more consistent running game, this prediction could’ve come true.

2. Matt Cassel won’t be able to save the Patriots season. Who knows what I meant by the ambiguous word “save”? Technically, I was correct. Cassel and the 11-5 Patriots didn’t make the playoffs, but Cassel certainly earned himself a starting spot somewhere for next season, once the Patriots execute a sign-and-trade. In my ensuing discussion of the AFC East, I completely ignored their only playoff team, the Miami Dolphins. So yeah, I didn’t anticipate a 1-15 team going 11-5 with a college-level offense.

3. The St. Louis Rams will challenge Miami’s epic run at 0-16. Soooo close. Right record to fall, wrong team to do it. If only I had paid attention to one or two Rod Marinelli press conferences before I wrote this prediction.

4. The NFC East will remain the most difficult division in football. This is also technically true, if we’re looking for the most difficult division to play in without committing a crime or getting sucked into the locker room drama. Maybe not the most compelling division in the league (AFC East and NFC South get nods), but certainly better than either West division.

5. A couple of notes on the Seahawks, including one about them making the playoffs with an 8-8 record. Wishful thinking. I also didn’t expect Larry Fitzgerald to become the greatest receiver in NFL history over just two playoff games. Congratulations to the Cardinals for finally “vindicating” the pundits who choose them year-after-year, thanks to a 9-7 record in a weak division and two warm-weather playoff victories against teams with no offensive output.

6. The media will continue to reinforce the stereotype of the great white quarterback. You might not think this is true, but look at how much more attention Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan get in the mainstream press, merely because they manage to overshadow their middling statistics with one or two clutch plays per game, than the true keys to their teams, like the Ravens’ less-friendly Ray Lewis or near-MVP Falcons running back Michael Turner. It’s easier to look at a quarterback as the savior.

7. Finally, the Steelers will beat the Cowboys 31-18 in the Super Bowl. I wanted to revisit my NFL predictions now, before the season actually ends, to announce beforehand that I originally typed in the Eagles instead of the Cowboys, but decided Dallas was a safer pick. For some reason, I chose Tony Romo over an excessively motivated Donovan McNabb. One more thing: if the Steelers and the Eagles make the Super Bowl, can we play the game at a muddy high-school field in the middle of Pennsylvania? These teams don’t belong in a warm-weather game. Bring on the rain, the mud, and the greatness.

1. I appreciate all of the national commentators noticing Seattle’s sports woes here at the end of 2008. Where were you when the Sonics moved and the national reaction was … mute? You’re a little late, thank you. But all of this moaning shouldn’t distract us from the true positives in Northwest sports. I’m not trying to put a feel-good spin on an awful year, or to deny the pain of the Mariners season, but I hope we recognize where things have gone well. There’s no curse on Seattle – the Seahawks, Sonics, Huskies and Mariners all made major mistakes to end up in the pits (or oblivion, in the Sonics’ case).

I wish that the incredible high-school basketball landscape in Washington for both men and women would continue to flourish and garner attention on the national stage. I wish to applaud the individual and team efforts of the University of Washington women’s cross country team. I wish that the new Seattle Sounders FC can bring more big-time soccer to the Seattle metro area. I wish to marvel at Gonzaga University’s sustained national success in major college basketball and their graduation from mid-major status.

2. I wish that Jim Mora will continue the professional approach of Mike Holmgren’s Seahawks. I expect nothing less from the continually classy Seahawks organization, but I also worry about the hotheaded Mora, who hasn’t held his tongue in important situations before and already brings a little controversy to the table. With Mike Holmgren, you expect greatness. You expect absolute respect to the players and the game. You appreciate that he’s put that whole general manager fiasco behind him and concentrated on coaching a great football team.

Holmgren will probably return to coaching after his upcoming sabbatical. Good for him. I’m almost more excited to witness what he does during his sabbatical. Will he write an authoritative coaching book? Will he join the rest of his family in missionary and service work around the entire world (I think this is pretty likely)? Will he lay low and not fluff up his hair for a pregame show gig? Heavens no. He’s too erudite and substantive for a TV show. Let’s just hope that Jim Mora spent all his time over the last two seasons drinking Holmgren’s brain fluid. If so, maybe that’s why Mora’s secondary has been so lackluster until the last couple weeks. Football, more than any other sport, is about the entire team, the entire 52-man roster. That’s why good coaches mean so much. Please, Jim Mora, be a good coach.

3. I wish that the Mariners would trade Ichiro. If your team’s identity was found in a $100 millionleadoff hitter who rarely walks, sells team merchandise like crazy, seems very interested in an entertainment career, speaks like a philosopher and made waves last season because many of his teammates apparently hated him, you might have some issues. The Mariners still have no leader and now they’ve lost Raul Ibanez. My wish: trade Ichiro and his ridiculous contract for whatever we can get. Just see what we can get in return. We need position players. Why not sign Pat Burrell? Please, I’m done with Ichiro. It’s apparent he’s a clubhouse cancer, but he doesn’t make the same waves as others like T.O. because he lives in Japan half the year and because his selfishness isn’t so public. The guy won’t participate in the Home Run Derby even though he could create record ratings!

To be fair, it’s not that Ichiro is bad. Calling him a clubhouse cancer is probably going too far. He’s a good major league leadoff hitter and a very good defensive outfielder, but ultimately replaceable. His time with the Mariners has come to an end. He is not a team leader and at his contract, he needs to be one. If we’re going to rebuild, let’s rebuild. That means saying goodbye to easy merchandise money for a while and trying to move forward without Ichiro. The million-dollar leadoff man model is broken.

But the season still happened. And Jim Caple, a Seattleite who writes for ESPN.com, still penned this piece: “The Worst Year Ever.”

I didn’t find anything new in the article, and frankly stopped reading after a while. If you’re from another area, you might enjoy this article out of morbid fascination. It’s worth checking out, though, for the large photos and various sport collages.

Favorites include:
-Halfway down in the ex-Sonics collage, Clay Bennett’s contorted face
-For a shock about 2/3 down in the UW collage, check out the photo of Jake Locker scoring to (almost) tie the game against BYU. Look at the excited fans and the players’ pure joy. I’m still angry about the ensuing flag – let’s penalize a city for being excited about a good performance against a decent team. The photo seems like it was taken years ago, perhaps because it’s sunny out but probably because it carries none of the Ty Willingham-exemplified depression of the rest of the Huskies’ season.
-In the top 1/3, the almost identical expressions of Mike Holmgren and another mustachioed fan in the Seahawks collage

New York Jets DE Shaun Ellis was just fined $10K by the NFL for throwing a gigantic snow chunk at Seahawks fans after the Jets’ loss Sunday. To be fair, Seahawks fans shouldn’t have been throwing snowballs at departing Jets players. Ellis’ move comes across just like he claims in this article: a funny response to overexcited fans.

Check out this YouTube clip of the sequence.

Jim Bates - Seattle Times

Mariners trade
RP J.J. Putz (Mets)
RP Sean Green (Mets)
OF Jeremy Reed (Mets)
IF Luis Valbuena (Indians)

Mariners get
OF Endy Chavez
OF Franklin Gutierrez
RP Aaron Heilman
+4 minor leaguers that I won’t bother to name

The Optimist’s View
The Mariners traded a junk second baseman, two relievers, and an outfielder without any above-average qualities for seven players, including an outfielder (Gutierrez) in his prime with serious potential. Heilman soured in New York, but that might have more to do with the New York atmosphere than his abilities as a pitcher. He certainly replaces Green, who really faltered in the second half of last season (albeit due to overuse). Chavez provides defense and a reliable, speedy veteran at the fourth outfielder position. He’ll be the pinch-runner if Willie Bloomquist goes elsewhere.

The most important overall point is that any trade dealing away Putz was a win for the Mariners. In the last few years, analysts have finally begun to realize what I’ve been saying all along: relief pitchers don’t matter. Closers go from good to bad within a season. Putz moved from a setup role to the closer’s job, performed admirably, and within two years his value skyrocketed. The GMZ sold high. Remember the saga of Francisco Cordero? He had a great season with the Rangers a few years ago, signed a sweet extension, bottomed out the next season, lost his closer’s job and eventually got traded to the Brewers, where he had a resurgence for a season and then faltered again. Closers are like mediocre quarterbacks in the NFL – they’re always someone just slightly worse waiting to take their job.

The Pessimist’s View
Note: this will be shorter. Try to guess what I think about this trade. We didn’t get a power bat. Green was our most effective reliever all last season. This is about all I have – though the power bat issue is a big one. Read “The Big Picture” for more on that.

The Big Picture
Good teams retool through trades and their farm system. I make that statement without years of statistical analysis, but we can all note that grandiose free agent signings, like spending $161 million for a guy who isn’t totally sure he wants to be in New York, or $37 million on a closer, don’t make the same impact as solid all-around organizations. Note the Tampa Bay Rays. Trades and farm system. Their early strategy of free agent signings (remember Fred McGriff, Jose Canseco and Wade Boggs?) didn’t exactly pan out.

Plus, Mariners fans needed a trade. They needed a trade after the Erik Bedard deal, the only notable deal of Bill Bavasi’s tenure. Bavasi seemed content to take the easy route: sign free agents rather than risk public opinion in a trade. Then he sent five players for one in the Bedard deal. You can’t trade that way. This is a refreshing change, I must say.

Finally, the GMZ probably isn’t done. Maybe this precedes another trade, involving either Beltre or Ichiro (please). Gutierrez has some power – he might hit 15-20 home runs projected over 450-550 at-bats, but he’s not quite the same answer as Matt Joyce of the Tigers would’ve been. Russell Branyan, if his production is anything like last year’s showing in limited at-bats, could be the answer. Remember that the Mariners played with ghosts as first base and catcher for nearly all of last season. ANYTHING is an upgrade.

In an article in the Seattle Times today, Mike Holmgren is adamant that his team will not tank. (By the way, if you ever thought this man would tank the final three games of his Seahawks coaching career to get Jim Mora a better draft pick, you are not very smart).

But this calls to mind the Seahawks’ previous draft. While first-rounder Lawrence Jackson, defensive end out of USC, hasn’t made any sort of headlines in his rookie season, second-round pick John Carlson, a former Notre Dame tight end, has been outstanding. He will set the team’s single-season record for catches by a tight end and could threaten marks for receiving yards and touchdowns. It now looks like a very good thing that the Hawks lost the Alge Crumpler sweepstakes this offseason.

Though only a barometer of individual success, the fantasy football world has taken notice of Carlson. He’s in the top 10 tight ends in the league in terms of offensive production. I can’t say much about his blocking, because I just haven’t watched much, but with all of the worries about Walter Jones and Matt Hasselbeck, it can feel like this team has no hope. Carlson provides hope.

The tight end isn’t the most important position on the field. Most elite teams don’t have star tight ends. They have productive, reliable tight ends. Finally, it appears, the Seahawks have a reliable tight end.