Edgerrin James’ Selfish Sabotage (Wildcard Picks, Pt. 1)
Time for Saturday’s NFL picks.
Once again, Bill Simmons nearly convinced me that he’s right. He picked Arizona and Indianapolis, delightfully paring playoff choices down to a formulaic manifesto (with admitted results).
Still, there’s a reason why it’s so difficult to pick all the games in this wildcard round: all of them have fundamental problems. No team in the playoffs performed well enough during the regular season to get my unwavering support as a conference “favorite.”
Atlanta at Arizona
Atlanta’s Issues: Michael Turner has been noticeably worse on the road (3.9 yards per carry on the road versus 5.1 ypc at home). Check out the rest of his splits. They have a rookie quarterback. They have a rookie coach, though if you still doubt Mike Smith’s impact as a coach, note how his former team, the Jacksonville Jaguars, went from 11-5 to 5-11 after losing Smith from the defensive coordinator position.
Arizona’s Issues: They lost four of their final six games. Their 39-year-old quarterback, Kurt Warner, went from MVP favorite to also-ran with a series of putrid performances during the season’s second half (to be fair, Warner is a two-time MVP). They have no running game. Better yet, their most productive running back in recent games, Edgerrin James, established today that he has no plans to return for the final year of his contract with the Cardinals. That’s the team spirit, Edge.
The Pick: ATLANTA wins the game. The Turner and Ryan combination should overwhelm the Cardinals, who at best are the class of a terrible division. Just because they’ve made the playoffs after so long doesn’t make them good. Falcons snag a road win.
Indianapolis at San Diego
Indy’s Issues: Joseph Addai, their running back, has battled health issues and consistency when healthy. Marvin Harrison just gets older and Anthony Gonzalez didn’t break out quite like everyone expected. They lost to the Chargers in last year’s playoffs, because newly christened MVP Peyton Manning had his usual issues with the 3-4 defense.
San Diego’s Issues: The team went only 8-8 during the regular season in another weak division. LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates have been injured. Norv Turner doesn’t match up well as a coach against Tony Dungy.
The Pick: Few playoff games feature an 8-8 home team against a 12-4 road team on a nine-game winning streak. Both teams feature gutsy quarterbacks and surprisingly brittle running attacksIf San Diego wasn’t the home team, we’d have no question that the Colts win. How much of a homefield advantage do the Chargers actually have in San Diego? Not much, I’d say. The COLTS win in the best game of the wildcard playoffs.
Picks for Sunday’s games to come Saturday.
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